서론
연구방법
1. 마늘의 기후변화 취약성 평가지표 및 지수 개발
2. 마늘 최종 기후변화 영향 및 취약성 평가
결과 및 고찰
1. 전국 지자체 시군별 마늘 생산성 관련 항목별 지수 및 취약성 평가
Table 1.
Table 2.
Province | Climate exposure index | Sensitivity index | Adaptation ability index | Vulnerability index |
---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
Gyeonggi | 0.39165±0.02 bz | 0.00516±0.01 b | 0.40481±0.04 a | 0.30563±0.06 d |
Gangwon | 0.47560±0.01 a | 0.01171±0.01 b | 0.17389±0.03 d | 0.59795±0.04 b |
Chungbuk | 0.40957±0.01 b | 0.02145±0.03 b | 0.18054±0.03 cd | 0.51801±0.03 bc |
Chungnam | 0.38580±0.00 b | 0.07705±0.05 b | 0.25758±0.02 bc | 0.46699±0.04 bcd |
Jeonbuk | 0.39408±0.02 b | 0.02331±0.00 b | 0.19322±0.02 bcd | 0.49010±0.03 bcd |
Jeonnam | 0.29863±0.02 cd | 0.16576±0.12 b | 0.22811±0.02 bcd | 0.44607±0.08 bcd |
Gyeongbuk | 0.38297±0.01 b | 0.05603±0.04 b | 0.26350±0.03 bc | 0.44378±0.03 bcd |
Gyeongnam | 0.31718±0.04 c | 0.09141±0.06 b | 0.26669±0.02 b | 0.38518±0.11 cd |
Jeju | 0.24870±0.02 d | 0.76136±0.04 a | 0.14616±0.00 d | 0.87488±0.05 a |
LSD (0.05) | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
Mean | 0.36713 | 0.13480 | 0.23494 | 0.46651 |
2. 광역지자체 시도별 마늘 생산성 관련 항목별 지수 및 취약성 평가
3. 취약성 평가에 따른 각 지수와 변수의 상관 분석
Table 3.
(1)z | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||||||||||
(1) | 1.000 | 0.691 | 0.270 | 0.150 | 0.083 | 0.925 | 0.731 | 0.639 | 0.222 | 0.061 | 0.239 | 0.682 |
(2) | 1.000 | 0.687 | 0.000 | 0.021 | 0.643 | 0.859 | 0.847 | 0.062 | 0.126 | 0.017 | 0.882 | |
(3) | 1.000 | 0.034 | 0.041 | 0.197 | 0.495 | 0.619 | 0.089 | 0.188 | 0.014 | 0.600 | ||
(4) | 1.000 | 0.706 | 0.179 | 0.031 | 0.008 | 0.272 | 0.007 | 0.440 | 0.033 | |||
(5) | 1.000 | 0.048 | 0.005 | 0.017 | 0.289 | 0.002 | 0.239 | 0.001 | ||||
(6) | 1.000 | 0.758 | 0.639 | 0.123 | 0.033 | 0.280 | 0.700 | |||||
(7) | 1.000 | 0.947 | 0.087 | 0.111 | 0.166 | 0.949 | ||||||
(8) | 1.000 | 0.078 | 0.102 | 0.111 | 0.925 | |||||||
(9) | 1.000 | 0.071 | 0.094 | 0.070 | ||||||||
(10) | 1.000 | 0.004 | 0.196 | |||||||||
(11) | 1.000 | 0.141 | ||||||||||
(12) | 1.000 |
z ① Daily average temp. Dec.~Feb.(°C), ② No. of days with daily average temp. below 11°C Sept.~Oct., ③ No. of days with daily average temp. below 13°C April~Jun. ④ No. of days with daily max. temp. above 30°C, ⑤ No. of days with daily max. temp. above 33°C, ⑥ No. of days with daily min. temp. below 0°C, ⑦ No. of days with daily min. temp. below 11°C Sept.~Oct., ⑧ No. of days with daily min. temp. below 14°C Sept.~Oct., ⑨ Precipitation(mm) Sept.~Nov., ⑩ No. of days with snow depth above 20 cm, ⑪ Soil temp. under 10cm ( C), ⑫ Climate exposure index T
Table 4.
(1)z | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|||||||
(1) | 1.000 | 0.931 | 0.806 | 0.978 | 0.909 | 0.725 | 0.938 |
(2) | 1.000 | 0.913 | 0.925 | 0.988 | 0.838 | 0.986 | |
(3) | 1.000 | 0.776 | 0.888 | 0.963 | 0.940 | ||
(4) | 1.000 | 0.928 | 0.717 | 0.935 | |||
(5) | 1.000 | 0.831 | 0.978 | ||||
(6) | 1.000 | 0.891 | |||||
(7) | 1.000 |
Table 5.
(1)z | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||||||||
(1) | 1.000 | 0.572 | 0.088 | 0.115 | 0.136 | 0.323 | 0.276 | 0.229 | 0.109 | 0.610 |
(2) | 1.000 | 0.021 | 0.053 | 0.060 | 0.200 | 0.171 | 0.145 | 0.025 | 0.351 | |
(3) | 1.000 | 0.066 | 0.026 | 0.206 | 0.243 | 0.171 | 0.482 | 0.033 | ||
(4) | 1.000 | 0.074 | 0.361 | 0.294 | 0.005 | 0.006 | 0.334 | |||
(5) | 1.000 | 0.085 | 0.073 | 0.029 | 0.057 | 0.180 | ||||
(6) | 1.000 | 0.850 | 0.333 | 0.268 | 0.511 | |||||
(7) | 1.000 | 0.258 | 0.276 | 0.348 | ||||||
(8) | 1.000 | 0.335 | 0.145 | |||||||
(9) | 1.000 | 0.014 | ||||||||
(10) | 1.000 |
z ① Financial reliance (%), ② GRDP in local area (million won) (2010), ③ Agriculture, forestry and fishery parts among (million won) (2010), ④ No. of agricultural machine in arable land (no./ha), ⑤ No. of farm with available PC among total farms ⑥ Agricultural population in arable land (no./ha) ⑦ No. of people related with land preparation per arable land (no. person/ha), ⑧ Road area ratio (%), ⑨ No. of tractor and power tiller("Gyungungi"), ⑩ Adaptation ability